The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War

by Robert J. Gordon, Robert J. Gordon (Afterword)

Overview

How America's high standard of living came to be and why future growth is under threat

In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television transformed households and workplaces. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end? Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth challenges the view that economic growth will continue unabated, and demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 cannot be repeated. Gordon contends that the nation's productivity growth will be further held back by the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government, and that we must find new solutions. A critical voice in the most pressing debates of our time, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780691175805
Publisher:	Princeton University Press
Publication date:	08/29/2017
Series:	The Princeton Economic History of the Western World , #70
Edition description:	Reprint
Pages:	784
Sales rank:	310,463
Product dimensions:	5.20(w) x 7.90(h) x 1.80(d)

About the Author

Robert J. Gordon is professor in social sciences at Northwestern University. His books include Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment and Macroeconomics. Gordon was included in the 2016 Bloomberg list of the nation's most influential thinkers.

Table of Contents

Preface ix

1. Introduction: The Ascent and Descent of Growth 1

PART I. 1870–1940—THE GREAT INVENTIONS CREATE A REVOLUTION INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE HOME 25

2. The Starting Point: Life and Work in 1870 27

3. What They Ate and Wore and Where They Bought It 62

4. The American Home: From Dark and Isolated to Bright and Networked 94

5. Motors Overtake Horses and Rail: Inventions and Incremental Improvements 129

6. From Telegraph to Talkies: Information, Communication, and Entertainment 172

7. Nasty, Brutish, and Short: Illness and Early Death 206

8. Working Conditions on the Job and at Home 247

9. Taking and Mitigating Risks: Consumer Credit, Insurance, and the Government 288

Entr’acte. The Midcentury Shift from Revolution to Evolution 319

PART II. 1940–2015—THE GOLDEN AGE AND THE EARLY WARNINGS OF SLOWER GROWTH 329

10. Fast Food, Synthetic Fibers, and Split-Level Subdivisions: The Slowing Transformation of Food, Clothing, and Housing 331

11. See the USA in Your Chevrolet or from a Plane Flying High Above 374

12. Entertainment and Communications from Milton Berle to the iPhone 409

13. Computers and the Internet from the Mainframe to Facebook 441

14. Antibiotics, CT Scans, and the Evolution of Health and Medicine 461

15. Work, Youth, and Retirement at Home and on the Job 498

Entr’acte. Toward an Understanding of Slower Growth 522

PART III. THE SOURCES OF FASTER AND SLOWER GROWTH 533

16. The Great Leap Forward from the 1920s to the 1950s: What Set of Miracles Created It? 535

17. Innovation: Can the Future Match the Great Inventions of the Past? 566

18. Inequality and the Other Headwinds: Long-Run American Economic Growth Slows to a Crawl 605

Postscript: America’s Growth Achievement and the Path Ahead 641

Acknowledgments 653

Data Appendix 657

Notes 667

References 717

Credits 741

Index 745

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

"The story of our standard of living is a vital part of American history and is well told in this fascinating book. Gordon provides colorful details and striking statistics about how the way we live has changed, and he asks whether we will live happily ever after. His answer will surprise you and challenge conventional assumptions about the future of economic growth. This book is a landmark—there is nothing else like it." —Robert Solow, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"A towering achievement that will utterly transform the debate on U.S. productivity and growth. Robert Gordon chronicles the stunning swiftness with which American lives have advanced since 1870, and raises profound questions about whether we have benefitted from one-offs that cannot be repeated. Combining eloquent description with forceful and clear economic analysis, Gordon's voice is gripping and compelling. This is economic history at its best."—Kenneth S. Rogoff, coauthor of This Time Is Different

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a tour de force with an immensely important bottom line. It is packed, page after page, with insights and facts that every reader will find fascinating and new. A profound book that also happens to be a marvelous read."—George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"Keynes dismissed concerns about economic trends by remarking that in the long run, we are all dead. Gordon turns this upside down by reminding us that we inherited somebody else's long run. If you care about the legacy we will leave future generations, read this richly detailed account of America's amazing century of growth."—Paul Romer, New York University

"Robert Gordon has written the book on wealth—how Americans made it and enjoyed it in the past. If we're going to create more wealth in the future instead of arguing about dividing a shrinking pie, we have to read and understand this book."—Peter Thiel, entrepreneur, investor, and author of Zero to One

"This book is as important as it is unsettling. Gordon makes a compelling case that the golden age of growth is over. Anyone concerned with our economic future needs to carefully consider his argument."—Lawrence Summers, Harvard University

"In The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Gordon looks at the evolution of consumption and the standard of living in the United States from the end of the Civil War to the present day. His work brims with the enthusiasm of discovery and is enriched by personal anecdotes and insights derived over a long and very productive career."—Alexander J. Field, Santa Clara University

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth makes use of economic history to argue that Americans should expect the rate of economic growth to be, on average, slower in the future than it has been in the recent past. Gordon is the most important exponent of the pessimistic view working today and this is an exceptional book."—Louis Cain, Loyola University Chicago

Editorial Reviews

"Provocative."

Associated Press

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is essential reading for anyone interested in economics."

Choice

"A new book by economist Robert Gordon—The Rise and Fall of American Growth—is causing quite a stir."

City A.M.

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is unquestionably an important book that raises fundamental questions about the United States' economy and society."

New Criterion

"Magnificent. . . . Gordon presents his case . . . with great style and panache, supporting his argument with vivid examples as well as econometric data. . . . Even if history changes direction . . . this book will survive as a superb reconstruction of material life in America in the heyday of industrial capitalism."

The Economist

"Magnificent. . . . Gordon presents his case. . . with great style and panache, supporting his argument with vivid examples as well as econometric data. . . . Even if history changes direction. . . this book will survive as a superb reconstruction of material life in America in the heyday of industrial capitalism."

Economist

"Provocative."

Associated Press Staff

"[A] fascinating convergence of green and mainstream thought."--Tom Horton, Chesapeake Bay Journal

"[T]his panoramic book makes good reading."--Shane Greenstein, Harvard Magazine

"The book's great contribution is the tapestry it weaves of all the innovations that changed most Americans' lives beyond recognition in the century from 1870 to 1970."--Martin Sandbu, Financial Times

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is unquestionably an important book that raises fundamental questions about the United States' economy and society."--New Criterion

"[A] masterpiece."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times

"[An] impressive book. . . . Gordon's book provides sufficient ammunition to show the colossal problems facing capitalism."--Socialism Today

"Rich with detailed information, meticulous observations, and even anecdotes and stories . . . a fascinating read."--Ricardo F. Levi, Corriere della Sera

"The Rise and Fall of American Growth is essential reading for anyone interested in economics."--Choice

"In an important new book, economist Robert Gordon makes the case for pessimism. He believes that technologies like smartphones, robots, and artificial intelligence aren't going to have the kind of big impact on the economy that earlier inventions--like the internal combustion engine and electricity--did."--Timothy B. Lee, Vox

"Robert Gordon has written an engaging economic-based history of America. . . . Gordon is to be commended for helping to stimulate a national debate on the current low level of economic productivity."--Allan Hauer, Innovation: The Journal of Technology & Commercialization

"If you want to see how far we have come and how tough life was a century and a half ago, read Gordon's book."--David R. Henderson, Regulation

"A fantastic read."--Bill Gates, GatesNotes

"The book is well written, and one can only be in awe of Gordon's mastery of the factual history of the American standard of living."--Robert A. Margo, EH.net

"Monumental."--John Cassidy, NewYorker.com

"Zeitgeist-defining."--Myles Udland, Business Insider

"[A] magisterial treatise."--Nick Gillespie, Reason.com

"[A]n essential read for anyone interested not only in US economic history but also American economic prospects . . . a tremendous achievement."--Diane Coyle, Enlightened Economist

"A comprehensive history of American economic growth."--Eric Rauchway, American Prospect

"Professor Robert J. Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a magisterial volume that will benefit any serious student of economics, demographics or history."--Wendell Cox, New Geography

"A wonderful new book."--Jeff Sachs, Boston Globe

"The most important economics book of 2016."--Steve Chapman, Chicago Tribune

"This spectacular history traces the rise and the plateau of the American economy since industrialization."--Jay Weiser, Weekly Standard

"[A] landmark book. . . . An impressive history of how the American people progressed in their standards of living and productivity in the 'golden century' of 1870-1970."--Stephen M. Millett, Strategy & Leadership

"Gordon's encyclopedic The Rise and Fall of American Growth, a new history of modern U.S. economic life, [is] perhaps the best yet written."--Jonathan Levy, Dissent

"One of our greatest economic historians. . . . Gordon's exhaustive research program . . . has knocked me back on my intellectual heels."--J. Bradford DeLong, Strategy + Business

"This is the most important book on economics in many years."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times

"Robert Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth set out a thesis of technological diminishing returns that does much to explain an age of economic pessimism."--Lorien Kite, Financial Times

"In the course of Gordon's book, a vivid picture of everyday life as our parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents lived it emerges. . . . What lingers in my mind, alongside these ideas, is a new, weightier sense of the past, and of what the people who lived in it ate, touched, heard, saw, and did. Reading The Rise and Fall of American Growth, I thought a lot about my grandparents. Gordon's book has made their lives more real to me."--Joshua Rothman, NewYorker.com's Page-Turner blog

From the Publisher

…whether or not you end up agreeing with Gordon's thesis, this is a book well worth reading—a magisterial combination of deep technological history, vivid portraits of daily life over the past six generations and careful economic analysis. Non-economists may find some of the charts and tables heavy going, but Gordon never loses sight of the real people and real lives behind those charts. This book will challenge your views about the future; it will definitely transform how you see the past.

The New York Times Book Review - Paul Krugman

"[An] impressive book. . . . Gordon's book provides sufficient ammunition to show the colossal problems facing capitalism."

Socialism Today

"Magnificent. . . . Gordon presents his case. . . with great style and panache, supporting his argument with vivid examples as well as econometric data. . . . Even if history changes direction. . . this book will survive as a superb reconstruction of material life in America in the heyday of industrial capitalism."

Economist

12/01/2015
Gordon (economics, Northwestern Univ.) indicates that after the Civil War there was an economic revolution that changed the American standard of living, but that the rate of technological change has been slowing down. Coverage begins in 1870; there was little economic growth prior to that, as peasant life remained basically unchanged. Electricity, internal combustion engines, running water, indoor toilets, communication, entertainment, chemicals, and petroleum—these have created a tremendous growth in the American economy. Owing to medical discoveries, the life expectancy between 1870 and 1970 increased from 45 to 72 years. However, that century didn't have an aging population, the increasing debt of college student loans, rising inequality, and stagnating education. The author warns of forthcoming change and increasingly tough times: the younger generation might be the first not to increase their standard of living. VERDICT This specialized book will interest the individual scholar and to a lesser extent the general reader. Patrons might also consult American Economic Growth and Standards of Living Before the Civil War, edited by Robert E. Gallman and John Joseph Wallis.—Claude Ury, San Francisco

Library Journal

★ 2015-11-04
A comprehensive analysis of "one of the most fundamental questions about American economic history." Gordon (Social Sciences/Northwestern Univ.; Macroeconomics, 2008, etc.), a respected macroeconomist, provides a groundbreaking contribution to political economy. His emphasis is quite different from the familiar concerns of budget deficits and quarterly profits. He compares the growth of real wages, living standards, and innovations in technology over two periods: 1870 to 1940 and 1940 to 1970. The author identifies advances in lifestyles, and he establishes that New Deal labor policies, which caused real wages to rise faster than productivity, laid the foundation for "the Great Leap Forward" in the middle of the 20th century. The author also shows how horse-drawn streetcars and steam-powered trains expanded urban activities, and he examines how electrification and the internal combustion engine powered the Second Industrial Revolution. Gordon is primarily concerned with the quality of these successive improvements—which, he writes, "are missing from GDP altogether"—as well as the consumer price index, which tracks current sales and prices. "Our measure of capital input," he writes, "is newly developed for this book and adjusts for the unusual aspects of investment behavior during the 1930s and 1940s." The author uses his fresh methods to back his argument for the primary significance of the reforms that took place during the New Deal. These policies, many of which are now considered failures, are thus shown to have provided the groundwork for what was to come. This Great Leap Forward generated the momentum that continued into the 1970s. The book is not for general readers, but students and scholars in economics and American history will find within these pages much illuminating interpretation of a massive amount of data. A masterful study to be read and reread by anyone interested in today's political economy.

Kirkus Reviews